Bearings: new areas, new opportunities, broad prospects for localization of bearing production 

International bearing manufacturers occupy leading positions in the market, the domestic bearing industry is developing at an accelerated pace, and the growth prospects of the bearing industry are very broad.

Bearings are important components of machinery, their main function is to reduce friction, ensure rotation and carry loads. Depending on the nature of the friction that occurs during the operation of the bearing, they can be divided into plain bearings and rolling bearings, with rolling bearings being more widely used. In terms of the competitive landscape, the global bearing market is largely monopolized by eight major international manufacturers: SKF, NSK, TEKT, NTN, NMB, NACHI, TIMKEN and Schaeffler. In 2022, these eight manufacturers' global market share (by revenue) reached 75%, which is mainly due to their longer development history; In comparison, the Chinese bearing market is characterized by a lower degree of concentration. In terms of market size, according to Grand View Research, the global bearing market size will be US$120.98 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) expected to be around 9% from 2023 to 2030, with China being one of the major markets. According to the China Bearing Industry Association, China's bearing industry generated revenue of 227.8 billion yuan in 2021. In the future, China's bearing industry has strong growth prospects due to the rapid growth in production of humanoid robots and the trend of replacing imported wind power bearings with domestic ones.

Bearings are key components of wind turbines, and under cost-cutting pressure their replacement with domestic models is accelerating.

Because wind power bearings have the following characteristics: high technical complexity and important role in wind turbines, small share of wind turbine cost but high added value, and that the replacement of imported products with domestic ones and technological upgrading strengthen the bearings' ability to grow sustainably, they have strong resistance to deflation. Bearings for wind power include main shaft bearings, pitch and pitch control system bearings, and gearbox bearings, and main shaft bearings and gearbox bearings have significant potential to replace imported products with domestic products. According to Research and Markets, the global wind power bearings market size was US$6.8 billion in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) projected to be around 12.76% from 2022 to 2028. According to our estimates, the wind power bearing market size in China is expected to exceed RMB 33 billion in 2025, with the main shaft bearing, attitude and pitch bearing and gearbox bearing markets at RMB 8.142 billion, RMB 18.084 billion and RMB 7.064 billion respectively. The China wind power bearings market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 21.34% from 2020 to 2025, mainly driven by broad growth prospects associated with strong demand for wind power in the country, as well as the ongoing process of substitution of imported products with domestic products.

Bearings are important connecting elements in the production chain of humanoid robots and are mainly used in gearboxes, screws and motors.

In the long term, the production volume of humanoid robots is expected to grow rapidly, and the market potential of all links in the production chain is significant; The continued development of this industry is likely to drive increased demand for bearings for gearboxes, propellers and motors. The types of bearings used in various components of humanoid robots are very diverse. Using the Tesla Optimus Gen-2 robot as an example, we analyzed the types of bearings used in its components: harmonic gearboxes mainly use cross-shaped roller bearings and flexible bearings, planetary gearboxes use deep groove ball bearings and needle bearings, planetary roller screws mainly use deep groove ball bearings and four-point ball bearings, and hollow body motors — radial ball bearings and plain bearings. According to our calculations, when the sales volume of humanoid robots reaches the million unit level, the market volume of planetary screw gears and harmonic gearboxes will exceed 10 billion yuan, and the market volume of hollow motors and planetary gearboxes will also increase significantly; The use of bearings in the above assemblies is expected to have significant growth potential.